气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02589-1
	Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data
	Montamat G.; Stock J.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	361
结束页码	371
卷号	160 期号:3
英文摘要	The transient climate response (TCR) is the change in global mean temperature at the time of an exogenous doubling in atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at a rate of 1% per year. A problem with estimating the TCR using observational data is that observed CO2 concentrations depend in turn on temperature. Therefore, the observed concentration data are endogenous, potentially leading to simultaneous causation bias of regression estimates of the TCR. We address this problem by employing instrumental variables regression, which uses changes in radiative forcing external to earth systems to provide quasi-experiments that can be used to estimate the TCR. Because the modern instrumental record is short, we focus on decadal fluctuations (up to 30-year changes), which also mitigate some statistical issues associated with highly persistent temperature and concentration data. Our estimates of the TCR for these shorter horizons, normalized to be comparable to the traditional 70-year TCR, fall within the range in the IPCC-AR5 and provide new observational confirmation of model-based estimates. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Endogeneity; Instrumental variables; Radiative forcing; TCR
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Atmospheric temperature; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Concentration data; Endogeneity; Global-mean temperature; Instrumental variables; Observational data; Quasi-experiments; Radiative forcings; Regression estimates; Transient analysis; carbon dioxide; climate change; numerical model; radiative forcing; regression analysis; temperature effect
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147159
作者单位	Department of Economics, Harvard University, Littauer Center G-7, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Department of Economics, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Littauer Center M-27, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Montamat G.,Stock J.H.. Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data[J],2020,160(3).
APA	Montamat G.,&Stock J.H..(2020).Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data.Climatic Change,160(3).
MLA	Montamat G.,et al."Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data".Climatic Change 160.3(2020).