气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02688-4
	Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?
	Ranjitkar S.; Bu D.; Van Wijk M.; Ma Y.; Ma L.; Zhao L.; Shi J.; Liu C.; Xu J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	637
结束页码	652
卷号	161 期号:4
英文摘要	There are clear signs that milk production growth is leveling off, and recently even declining, in China. Heat stress is one of the main reasons for the recent reduction in milk production. In this study, we computed the change in milk production as a result of heat stress in major milk production areas in China. We constructed a temperature–humidity index (THI) spatial layer to understand the monthly distribution of heat and moisture. We documented specific areas in northern China where cattle were at high risk to heat stress in specific months. THI values exceeded the threshold above which milk production declines during months of June, July, and August. Especially during July, the THI value was higher than the production threshold in recent years (2008 to 2016) and in projected future scenarios (2050 and 2070). THI-based milk yield losses were up from 0.7 to about 4 kg per cow per day in July 2016. These losses are projected to increase from 1.5 to 6.5 kg in 2050 and 2 to 7.2 kg in 2070 (representing production losses between 15 and 50%). These results suggest that climate change will have significant consequences for the dairy sector in major milk-producing areas in China. Our results are useful in identifying areas susceptible to heat stress where adaptive livestock management practices are needed to prevent significant production decreases. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Cow; Heat stress; Milk production; Temperature–humidity index
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate change; Humidity index; Leveling offs; Management practices; Milk production; Northern China; Producing areas; Production loss; Specific areas; Thermal stress; cattle; climate change; concentration (composition); livestock farming; milk production; spatiotemporal analysis; yield response; China; Bos
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147124
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Animal Nutrition, Institute of Animal Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan 650201, China; CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry, Beijing, China; East and Central Asia Regional Office, World Agroforestry, Kunming, China; Centre for Mountain Futures (CMF), Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming, Yunnan 650201, China; Hunan Co-Innovation Center of Animal Production Safety, Changsha, Hunan, China; International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Nairobi, 30709, Kenya; National Animal Husbandry Services, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ranjitkar S.,Bu D.,Van Wijk M.,et al. Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?[J],2020,161(4).
APA	Ranjitkar S..,Bu D..,Van Wijk M..,Ma Y..,Ma L..,...&Xu J..(2020).Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?.Climatic Change,161(4).
MLA	Ranjitkar S.,et al."Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?".Climatic Change 161.4(2020).