气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02723-4
	Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean
	Maynou F.; Sabatés A.; Ramirez-Romero E.; Catalán I.A.; Raya V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	567
结束页码	589
卷号	161 期号:4
英文摘要	We studied the effect of climate change on the potential spawning habitats of two marine small pelagic fishes. We examined the projected changes in the potential spawning habitat of the summer-spawning anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) in the northwestern Mediterranean by combining the regionalized projections of RCP scenarios with an existing species distribution model (SDM). The SDM was based on a separate generalized additive model for the eggs and larvae of the two species computed from ichthyoplankton sampling that was conducted with simultaneous readings of surface temperature, salinity and chlorophyll-a values as predictor variables. The SDM was projected for the 2010 decade, which represented the present-day conditions, with these environmental variables obtained from the regionalized POLCOMS-ERSEM biogeochemical model forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The comparison of the present-day projection results with the projections for the middle and final decades of the twenty-first century showed that the suitability of the spawning habitat as defined by the anchovy eggs model was likely to increase over time under RCP4.5 or decrease slightly under RCP8.5, but the habitat for anchovy larvae was likely to decrease in all cases. Loss of habitat was projected to be particularly important in the south of the study area on the Ebre River delta continental shelf. Conversely, the probability of round sardinella occurrence will significantly increase under both scenarios. The potential habitat of this species, which is of subtropical origin, is likely to shift northwards. The limitations of the existing models to extrapolate the current results to future scenarios are discussed regarding (i) the uncertainty in the projections of driving environmental variables (e.g., chlorophyll-a), (ii) the simplified nature of the projection models, which did not capture the dynamics of the early life stages of the fish at a small scale, and (iii) insufficient consideration of important drivers, such as larval transport or retention by mesoscale hydrographic phenomena. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Anchovy; Climate change; Eggs; Larvae; Northwestern Mediterranean; RCP scenarios; Round sardinella
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Chlorophyll; Climate change; Fish; Biogeochemical modeling; Engraulis encrasicolus; Environmental variables; Generalized additive model; Northwestern Mediterranean; Potential spawning habitat; Species distribution modeling; Surface temperatures; Ecosystems
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147122
作者单位	Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Psg. Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, Barcelona, 08003, Spain; IMEDEA, CSIC-UIB, c. Miquel Marquès 21, Esporles, 07190, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maynou F.,Sabatés A.,Ramirez-Romero E.,et al. Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean[J],2020,161(4).
APA	Maynou F.,Sabatés A.,Ramirez-Romero E.,Catalán I.A.,&Raya V..(2020).Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean.Climatic Change,161(4).
MLA	Maynou F.,et al."Future distribution of early life stages of small pelagic fishes in the northwestern Mediterranean".Climatic Change 161.4(2020).