气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02833-z
	Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA
	Bichet A.; Diedhiou A.; Hingray B.; Evin G.; Touré N.D.E.; Browne K.N.A.; Kouadio K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	583
结束页码	601
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	Over the past decades, large variations of precipitation were observed in Africa, which often led to dramatic consequences for local society and economy. To avoid such disasters in the future, it is crucial to better anticipate the expected changes, especially in the current context of climate change and population growth. To this date, however, projections of precipitation over Africa are still associated with very large uncertainties. To better understand how this uncertainty can be reduced, this study uses an advanced Bayesian analysis of variance (ANOVA) method to characterize, for the first time in the regional climate projections of CORDEX-AFRICA, the different sources of uncertainty associated with the projections of precipitation over Africa. By 2090, the ensemble mean precipitation is projected to increase over the Horn of Africa from September to May and over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast from June to November. It is projected to decrease over the northern coast and southern Africa all year long, over western Sahel from March to August, and over the Sahel and Guinea Coast from March to May. Most of these projections however are not robust, i.e., the magnitude of change is smaller than the associated uncertainty. Over time, the relative contribution of internal variability (excluding interannual variability) to total uncertainty is moderate and quickly falls below 10%. By 2090, it is found that over the Horn of Africa, northern coast, southern Africa, and Sahel, most of the uncertainty results from a large dispersion across the driving Global Climate Models (in particular MIROC, CSIRO, CCCma, and IPSL), whereas over the tropics and parts of eastern Africa, most of the uncertainty results from a large dispersion across Regional Climate Models (in particular CLMcom). © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Bayesian ANOVA; CORDEX-AFRICA; Internal variability; Model uncertainty; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Disaster prevention; Dispersions; Electric power system interconnection; Population statistics; Uncertainty analysis; Global climate model; Interannual variability; Internal variability; Regional climate models; Regional climate projections; Relative contribution; Sources of uncertainty; Total uncertainties; Analysis of variance (ANOVA); assessment method; climate change; dispersion; population growth; regional climate; spatiotemporal analysis; uncertainty analysis; Guinea; Horn of Africa; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147116
作者单位	University Grenoble Alpes, IGE UMR 5001, Saint Martin d’Hères, 38400, France; African Center of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture (LAPAMF, CEA-CCBAD), University Félix Houphouët Boigny, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire; INRAE, ETNA, Saint Martin dHères, France; University of Ghana, Legon, Greater Accra, Ghana
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bichet A.,Diedhiou A.,Hingray B.,et al. Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Bichet A..,Diedhiou A..,Hingray B..,Evin G..,Touré N.D.E..,...&Kouadio K..(2020).Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Bichet A.,et al."Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).