气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02745-y
	Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations
	Jeong D.I.; Cannon A.J.; Morris R.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	821
结束页码	835
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	Strong wind coinciding with rainfall is an important weather phenomenon in many science and engineering fields. This study investigates changes in hourly extreme driving rain wind pressure (DRWP)—a climatic variable used in building design in Canada—for future periods of specified global mean temperature change using an ensemble of a Canadian regional climate model (CanRCM4) driven by the Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Evaluation of the model shows that the CanRCM4 ensemble reproduces hourly extreme wind speeds and rainfall (> 1.8 mm/h) occurrence frequency and the associated design (5-year return level) DRWP across Canada well when compared with 130 meteorological stations. Significant increases in future design DRWP are projected over western, eastern, and northern Canada, with the areal extent and relative magnitude of the increases scaling approximately linearly with the amount of global warming. Increases in future rainfall occurrence frequency are driven by the combined effect of increases in precipitation amount and changes in precipitation type from solid to liquid due to increases in air temperature; these are identified as the main factors leading to increases in future design DRWP. Future risk ratios of the design DRWP are highly dependent on those of the rainfall occurrence, which shows large increases over the three regions, while they are partly affected by the increases in future extreme wind speeds over western and northeastern Canada. Increases in DRWP can be an emerging risk for existing buildings, particularly in western, eastern, and northern Canada, and a consideration for managing and designing buildings across Canada. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Design buildings; Driving-rain wind pressure; Rainfall; Wind speed
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Architectural design; Earth (planet); Global warming; Petroleum reservoir evaluation; Rain; Structural dynamics; Wind effects; Climatic variables; Earth system model; Extreme wind speed; Global-mean temperature; Meteorological station; Regional climate model simulation; Regional climate modeling; Science and engineering; Climate models; air temperature; architectural design; climate modeling; extreme event; global warming; precipitation assessment; prediction; rainfall; wind velocity; Canada
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147108
作者单位	Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jeong D.I.,Cannon A.J.,Morris R.J.. Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Jeong D.I.,Cannon A.J.,&Morris R.J..(2020).Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Jeong D.I.,et al."Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).