气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02771-w
	Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models
	Howard P.H.; Sylvan D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	213
结束页码	232
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	The social cost of carbon (SCC) and the climate-economic models underlying this prominent US climate policy instrument are heavily affected by modeler opinion and therefore may not reflect the views of most climate economists. To test whether differences exist, we recalibrate key uncertain model parameters using formal expert elicitation: a multi-question online survey of individuals who have published scholarship on the economics of climate change, with 165 to 216 respondents, depending on the question. Survey questions on the magnitude of climate impacts and appropriate discount rates revealed that prevailing views differ from prominent IAMs, including DICE. We calibrate the DICE damage functions and discount rates to reflect the mean and median survey responses, respectively, recognizing these two parameters’ differing sources of uncertainty (positive versus normative). We find a 16-fold higher SCC than the base DICE-2013R assumptions, with a range of 11- to 24-fold under alternative modeling assumptions (using the DICE-2016R2 model version and calibrating damages to median rather than mean responses). Our findings support a 7- to 13-fold SCC increase for different respondent subgroups even when we exclude the potential for catastrophic climate impact shocks. Our results reveal a significant disparity between IAMs and the broader community of scholars publishing in this field. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate-economic models; Expert elicitation; IAMs; Social cost of carbon (SCC)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Economics; Surveys; Uncertainty analysis; Climate impacts; Damage functions; Expert elicitation; Model assumptions; Social cost of carbon; Sources of uncertainty; Uncertain modeling; Whether differences; Climate models; calibration; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; economic analysis; environmental policy; parameterization; perception; questionnaire survey; uncertainty analysis; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147090
作者单位	Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University School of Law, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Howard P.H.,Sylvan D.. Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Howard P.H.,&Sylvan D..(2020).Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Howard P.H.,et al."Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).