气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02752-z
	More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future
	Brouillet A.; Joussaume S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	527
结束页码	544
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	Global warming is projected to intensify during the twenty-first century. Yet, only few studies investigate how global warming could be perceived by future populations. Here, we propose an assessment of how climate change could be perceived by combining climatological indicators. We analyse extremes of temperature (T99) and simplified Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT99), a heat stress index assessing the combined effect of elevated temperature and humidity on the human body. The speed of change is defined for each year as the difference between the previous 20 years and the twenty upcoming years (i.e. with a moving baseline), and we assess how these speeds emerge from each last 20-year interannual variability. Using a set of 12 CMIP5 models, speeds of change of T99 and WBGT99 in 2080 are both twice as fast compared with current speeds in mid-latitudes, and by up to four times faster in the tropics under the RCP8.5 scenario. Warming accelerations are thus similar for T99 and WBGT99. However, these speeds in tropical regions in 2080 are projected to be 2.3 times larger than the last 20-year interannual variability for WBGT99, and only 1.5 to 1.8 times larger for T99. According to the models, the WBGT99 intensification will be more emergent from the recent year-to-year variability than the T99 warming. This analysis suggests that the accelerated warming of heat extremes will be felt more strongly by populations than current changes for RCP8.5, and that this evolution will be more perceived in heat stress than in temperature, particularly within the tropics. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate models; Extremes; Global warming; Heat stress; Speed of change; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Thermal stress; Tropics; Combined effect; Current change; Current speed; Elevated temperature; Interannual variability; Temperature extremes; Tropical regions; Wet-bulb globe temperatures; Speed; annual variation; assessment method; climate change; environmental stress; extreme event; future prospect; global warming; perception; temperature effect; twenty first century
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147080
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brouillet A.,Joussaume S.. More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Brouillet A.,&Joussaume S..(2020).More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Brouillet A.,et al."More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).