气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02832-0
	Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
	Khan J.U.; Islam A.K.M.S.; Das M.K.; Mohammed K.; Bala S.K.; Islam G.M.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	667
结束页码	685
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	Drought is an inconspicuous natural disaster. In a warmer world, the severity and coverage of drought are expected to change, and it is essential to study these changes at smaller scale. This study detected changes in drought frequency, severity, and intensity in Bangladesh from a bias-corrected CMIP-5 multi-model projection of 11 members under a business-as-usual RCP8.5 scenario. We have used two well-known meteorological drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI). SPI is solely based on precipitation, while SPEI considers climatic water balance and incorporates the effect of temperature. Two different methods of estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET), namely Thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods, are explored. SPEI-based drought identification is found to have high sensitivity among these PET estimation methods. In Bangladesh, SPI-based analysis suggests virtually no change in the long-term drought (12-monthly) condition and a minor change in short-term (6-monthly or less) droughts. SPEI evaluated with Hargreaves method projects a similar scenario for long-term droughts but an increase in both drought frequency and severity in short timescales. At seasonal scale, winter and pre-monsoon are projected to be potentially more affected by water stress in the future. A spatially coherent shift in wet-dry regime is also found over the northern part of Bangladesh under the warming world. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climatic change; Drought; Multi-model ensemble; RCM; RCP; SPEI; SPI
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Disasters; Evapotranspiration; Climatic water balance; Effect of temperature; Estimation methods; Hargreaves methods; Meteorological drought; Multi-model ensemble; Potential evapotranspiration; Standardized precipitation index; Drought; climate modeling; CMIP; evapotranspiration; hydrometeorology; monsoon; scenario analysis; trend analysis; water budget; water stress; Bangladesh
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147074
作者单位	Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khan J.U.,Islam A.K.M.S.,Das M.K.,et al. Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Khan J.U.,Islam A.K.M.S.,Das M.K.,Mohammed K.,Bala S.K.,&Islam G.M.T..(2020).Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Khan J.U.,et al."Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).