气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought projection in the Indochina Region based on the optimal ensemble subset of CMIP5 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02850-y
	Drought projection in the Indochina Region based on the optimal ensemble subset of CMIP5 models
	Chhin R.; Oeurng C.; Yoden S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	687
结束页码	705
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	We explore future changes of temperature, precipitation, and drought characteristics in the Indochina Region (ICR) based on the optimal ensemble subset of global climate models (GCMs) of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The optimal ensemble subset is selected from 34 GCMs using an ensemble selection method by focusing on precipitation over ICR. Bias correction procedures for the optimal ensemble subset are examined for drought analysis in ICR. Based on the bias-corrected optimal ensemble subset, mean temperature in ICR is projected to increase around 1.1 °C (0.99 °C) in near future (2011–2040), 2.5 °C (1.8 °C) in mid future (2041–2070), and 4.3 °C (2.2 °C) in far future (2071–2100) time frames under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (RCP4.5) scenario. Mean precipitation decreases in the dry season and increases in the wet season. The 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) projects larger changes of drought characteristics than those of the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), especially quite large increases of drought duration, severity, and peak. Based on SPEI-3, the potential increase of severe drought hazard is expected in ICR in the far future period under both scenarios. The most drought-prone areas are detected over Thailand and Cambodia in which the drought characteristics are projected to expand to cover most parts of ICR in the mid and far future. The potentially dry condition over ICR is clearly depicted based on SPEI-3 with more reliable estimation after selecting the optimal ensemble subset and bias correction procedure. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	CMIP5; Indochina Region; RCP4.5; RCP8.5; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought; Set theory; Drought characteristics; Ensemble selections; Global climate model; Mean precipitation; Mean temperature; Model inter comparisons; Optimal ensemble; Standardized precipitation index; Climate models; climate modeling; CMIP; drought; ensemble forecasting; global climate; index method; temperature effect; Cambodia; Indochina; Thailand
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147068
作者单位	Division of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8502, Japan; Research and Innovation Center, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Phnom Penh, 12156, Cambodia; Institute for Liberal Arts and Sciences, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chhin R.,Oeurng C.,Yoden S.. Drought projection in the Indochina Region based on the optimal ensemble subset of CMIP5 models[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Chhin R.,Oeurng C.,&Yoden S..(2020).Drought projection in the Indochina Region based on the optimal ensemble subset of CMIP5 models.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Chhin R.,et al."Drought projection in the Indochina Region based on the optimal ensemble subset of CMIP5 models".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).