气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change; crops and commodity traders: subnational trade analysis highlights differentiated risk exposure

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02857-5
	Climate change; crops and commodity traders: subnational trade analysis highlights differentiated risk exposure
	Stokeld E.; Croft S.A.; Green J.M.H.; West C.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	175
结束页码	192
卷号	162 期号:2
英文摘要	The global food system is increasingly interconnected and under pressure to support growing demand. At the same time, crop production is facing new and uncertain impacts from climate change. To date, understanding how downstream supply chain actors, such as commodity traders, are exposed to climate change risks has been difficult due to a lack of high-resolution climate and trade data. However, the recent availability of supply chain data linking subnational production to downstream actors, and gridded projections of crop yield under climate change, allows us to assess individual commodity trader exposure to long-term climate change risk. We apply such an analysis to soy production in Brazil, the world’s largest soy exporter. Whilst uncertainty across crop models’ yield projections means it remains difficult to accurately predict how production across the region will be affected by climate change, we demonstrate that the risk exposure of trading actors differs substantially due to the heterogeneity in their sourcing. Our study offers a first attempt to analyze subnational climate risk to individual trading actors operating across an entire production landscape, leading to more precise risk exposure analysis. With sufficient subnational data, this method can be applied to any crop and country combination, and in the context of wider food security issues, it will be pertinent to apply these methods across other production systems and downstream actors in the food system. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate risk; Crop models; Food system; Soybean; Supply chains; Transnational climate impacts
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Commerce; Crops; Cultivation; Food supply; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Supply chains; Climate change risks; Crop production; Food security; Gridded projections; Growing demand; High resolution; Production system; Supply chain actors; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; commodity; crop production; crop yield; global change; long-term change; risk assessment; supply chain management; trade-environment relations; Brazil; Glycine max
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147065
作者单位	Stockholm Environment Institute - York, Department of Environment & Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, Heslington, York, YO10 5NG, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stokeld E.,Croft S.A.,Green J.M.H.,et al. Climate change; crops and commodity traders: subnational trade analysis highlights differentiated risk exposure[J],2020,162(2).
APA	Stokeld E.,Croft S.A.,Green J.M.H.,&West C.D..(2020).Climate change; crops and commodity traders: subnational trade analysis highlights differentiated risk exposure.Climatic Change,162(2).
MLA	Stokeld E.,et al."Climate change; crops and commodity traders: subnational trade analysis highlights differentiated risk exposure".Climatic Change 162.2(2020).