气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02368-y
	Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways
	van den Berg N.J.; van Soest H.L.; Hof A.F.; den Elzen M.G.J.; van Vuuren D.P.; Chen W.; Drouet L.; Emmerling J.; Fujimori S.; Höhne N.; Kõberle A.C.; McCollum D.; Schaeffer R.; Shekhar S.; Vishwanathan S.S.; Vrontisi Z.; Blok K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1805
结束页码	1822
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Emission control; Greenhouse gases; Greenhouses; Petroleum reservoir evaluation; Sensitivity analysis; Bottom up approach; Developed countries; Emission targets; Historical emissions; Optimal approaches; Parameter setting; Reduction targets; Temperature increase; Budget control; bottom-up approach; carbon budget; cost analysis; emission control; equity; greenhouse gas; international agreement; mitigation; parameterization; research work
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147063
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, Utrecht, 3508 TC, Netherlands; Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergognone, 34, Milano, 20144, Italy; Kyoto University, Department Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University Katsura Campus, 361, C1-3, Kyoto-City, Nishikyo-ku 615-8540, Japan; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 9101, Wageningen, 6700 HB, Netherlands; New Climate Institute, Clever Strasse 13-15, Cologne, 50668, Germany; Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidad...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van den Berg N.J.,van Soest H.L.,Hof A.F.,et al. Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways[J],2020,162(4).
APA	van den Berg N.J..,van Soest H.L..,Hof A.F..,den Elzen M.G.J..,van Vuuren D.P..,...&Blok K..(2020).Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	van den Berg N.J.,et al."Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).