气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02440-7
	Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization
	Vrontisi Z.; Fragkiadakis K.; Kannavou M.; Capros P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1857
结束页码	1875
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	The European Union has recently established the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” climate policy framework, aiming at the achievement of the European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the Paris Agreement. The EU28 NDC includes a commitment for emission reductions in 2030 but also refers to an economy-wide effort towards 2050 so as to contribute effectively to the long-term mitigation of climate change. We discuss the respective EU28 emission pathways in the context of a well below 2 °C global climate stabilization target and estimate the macroeconomic impacts for the EU28 economy by considering alternative levels of climate action for major non-EU emitters. We employ two models, the technology-rich energy system model PRIMES, and the global large-scale hybrid computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The two models are soft linked so as to ensure a consistent and robust framework of analysis. We find that emission reductions in the energy supply sector are dominant up to 2030 while transport takes the lead in 2050. Transport and non-CO2 emissions are the main remaining emitting sources in 2050. We present the key decarbonization pillars and confirm that the impacts on the EU28 economy largely depend on the level of mitigation action adopted by the rest of the world and by the relative carbon intensity across regions. Due to asymmetric ambition of climate policies, a global implementation of NDCs results in economic losses for the EU28 when compared with a “pre-Paris” policy reference scenario, despite positive effects on energy-intensive and clean technology exports. On the contrary, we find that the region registers economic gains in the case of coordinated 2 °C global climate action. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decarbonization; Emission control; Large scale systems; Losses; Stabilization; Carbon intensity; Clean technologies; Climate stabilization; Computable general equilibrium model; Emission reduction; Emitting sources; Energy system model; Macroeconomic impact; Climate change; climate change; economic conditions; emission control; environmental economics; environmental policy; European Union; global climate; macroeconomics; policy implementation; spatiotemporal analysis; Europe
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147062
作者单位	National Technical University of Athens, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Athens, Greece
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vrontisi Z.,Fragkiadakis K.,Kannavou M.,et al. Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Vrontisi Z.,Fragkiadakis K.,Kannavou M.,&Capros P..(2020).Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Vrontisi Z.,et al."Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).