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| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x |
| Confident; likely; or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports | |
| Janzwood S. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0165-0009 |
| 起始页码 | 1655 |
| 结束页码 | 1675 |
| 卷号 | 162期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | The uncertainty language framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups, and reports. However, the framework has not been updated since 2010, despite criticism that it was applied inconsistently in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and that the distinctions between the framework’s three language scales remain unclear. This article presents a mixed-methods analysis of the application and underlying interpretation of the uncertainty language framework by IPCC authors in the three special reports published since AR5. First, I present an analysis of uncertainty language term usage in three recent special reports: Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), and The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). The language usage analysis highlights how many of the trends identified in previous reports—like the significant increase in the use of confidence terms—have carried forward into the special reports. These observed trends, along with ongoing debates in the literature on how to interpret the framework’s three language scales, inform an analysis of IPCC author experiences interpreting and implementing the framework. This discussion is informed by interviews with IPCC authors. Lastly, I propose several recommendations for clarifying the IPCC uncertainty language framework to address persistent sources of confusion highlighted by the authors. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
| 英文关键词 | Assessment; Expert judgement; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Sixth assessment report; Special reports; Uncertainty |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | C (programming language); Global warming; Changing climate; Cryosphere; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Mixed method; Usage analysis; Working groups; Uncertainty analysis; assessment method; climate change; data interpretation; global warming; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; language; questionnaire survey; uncertainty analysis |
| 来源期刊 | Climatic Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147046 |
| 作者单位 | University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Janzwood S.. Confident; likely; or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports[J],2020,162(3). |
| APA | Janzwood S..(2020).Confident; likely; or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports.Climatic Change,162(3). |
| MLA | Janzwood S.."Confident; likely; or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports".Climatic Change 162.3(2020). |
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