气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention; decision-making and trust

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02737-y
	Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention; decision-making and trust
	Juanchich M.; Shepherd T.G.; Sirota M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1677
结束页码	1698
卷号	162 期号:3
英文摘要	The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) currently communicates uncertainty using a lexicon that features four negative verbal probabilities to convey extremely low to medium probabilities (e.g. unlikely). We compare a positive probability lexicon with the IPCC lexicon in a series of psychology experiments. We find that although the positive and negative lexicons convey a similar level of probability, the positive lexicon directs more attention towards the outcome occurrence and encourages more cautious decisions: in our role-playing experiment, it reduced the number of type 2 errors, i.e. failures to make needed precautionary interventions. Whilst participants considered the negative lexicon more useful in making a decision, they trusted the positive lexicon more and blamed information providers less after making an incorrect decision. Our results suggest that the negative verbal framing of probabilities used by the IPCC is not neutral and has implications for how climate information is interpreted by decision-makers. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Communication; Decision-making; IPCC; Psychology; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Probability; Climate information; Decision makers; Information provider; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Positive probability; Role playing; Decision making; decision making; experimental study; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; psychology; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147038
作者单位	Department of Psychology, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Juanchich M.,Shepherd T.G.,Sirota M.. Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention; decision-making and trust[J],2020,162(3).
APA	Juanchich M.,Shepherd T.G.,&Sirota M..(2020).Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention; decision-making and trust.Climatic Change,162(3).
MLA	Juanchich M.,et al."Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention; decision-making and trust".Climatic Change 162.3(2020).