气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The ultimate cost of carbon

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02785-4
	The ultimate cost of carbon
	Archer D.; Kite E.; Lusk G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	2069
结束页码	2086
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	We estimate the potential ultimate cost of fossil-fuel carbon to a long-lived human population over a one million–year time scale. We assume that this hypothetical population is technologically stationary and agriculturally based, and estimate climate impacts as fractional decreases in economic activity, potentially amplified by a human population response to a diminished human carrying capacity. Monetary costs are converted to units of present-day dollars by multiplying the future damage fractions by the present-day global world production, and integrated through time with no loss due from time-preference discounting. Ultimate costs of C range from $10k to $750k per ton for various assumptions about the magnitude and longevity of economic impacts, with a best-estimate value of about $100k per ton of C. Most of the uncertainty arises from the economic parameters of the model and, among the geophysical parameters, from the climate sensitivity. We argue that the ultimate cost of carbon is a first approximation of our potential culpability to future generations for our fossil energy use, expressed in units that are relevant to us. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Carbon cycle; Climate impact; Cost of carbon; Deep future
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Climate models; Cost estimating; Economics; Fossil fuels; Uncertainty analysis; Climate sensitivity; Economic activities; Economic impacts; Economic parameters; Future generations; Geophysical parameters; Human population; Time preferences; Cost benefit analysis; carrying capacity; climate effect; economic activity; fossil fuel; longevity; numerical model; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147032
作者单位	Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Department of Philosophy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Lyman Briggs College, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Archer D.,Kite E.,Lusk G.. The ultimate cost of carbon[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Archer D.,Kite E.,&Lusk G..(2020).The ultimate cost of carbon.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Archer D.,et al."The ultimate cost of carbon".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).