气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02829-9
	Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada
	Adde A.; Stralberg D.; Logan T.; Lepage C.; Cumming S.; Darveau M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	2339
结束页码	2358
卷号	162 期号:4
英文摘要	As breeding areas are becoming warmer and wetter, climatic changes are likely to affect the distributions of millions of waterfowl in Eastern Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the breeding distribution and abundance of 12 common waterfowl species, by using a climate envelope modeling approach. Our response variables were species counts on 317 helicopter plots (25 km2) averaged over 22 years (1996–2017). We applied a covariate selection procedure to select the best subset of a panel of 170 climate covariates for each species, which we then used to fit quantile regression forest models. Climate change projections were applied to the waterfowl models to infer 2011–2100 abundances. From the projected abundances, we computed climate suitability indices that accounted for potential temporal mismatches between climate change and the biota, as well as the expected velocity of climate change. On average, with a maximum of 4 covariates per model, the variance explained was 41% for out-of-bag predictions. Overall, the magnitude of absolute projected changes peaked under the “high” greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) and at the end of the century (2071–2100). Species-specific projections indicated that climate change would potentially increase the abundance and core distributions of 7/12 species, whereas 5/12 species would experience a decrease. In particular, large decreases were projected for Barrow’s goldeneye, an imperiled boreal cavity nester. Our spatially explicit indices of climate suitability deliver important information for targeting areas to preserve waterfowl, ecosystems, and the services they provide. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Breeding waterfowl; Climate change; Climate envelope modeling; Climate suitability; Conservation; Eastern Canada
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Greenhouse gases; Population distribution; Climate change projections; Climate suitability; Gas concentration; Potential effects; Quantile regression; Selection procedures; Spatially explicit; Species specifics; Climate change; abundance; climate change; ecosystem service; greenhouse gas; numerical model; regression analysis; waterfowl; Canada; Anatidae
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147012
作者单位	Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Université Laval, 2405 Rue de la Terrasse, Québec, QC, Canada; Boreal Avian Modelling Project, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Ouranos Climate Change Consortium, Montréal, QC, Canada; Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Québec, QC, Canada; Ducks Unlimited Canada, Québec, QC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Adde A.,Stralberg D.,Logan T.,et al. Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada[J],2020,162(4).
APA	Adde A.,Stralberg D.,Logan T.,Lepage C.,Cumming S.,&Darveau M..(2020).Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada.Climatic Change,162(4).
MLA	Adde A.,et al."Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada".Climatic Change 162.4(2020).