气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02867-3
	Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi
	Manzanas R.; Fiwa L.; Vanya C.; Kanamaru H.; Gutiérrez J.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	1437
结束页码	1453
卷号	162 期号:3
英文摘要	Statistical downscaling (SD) and bias adjustment (BA) methods are routinely used to produce regional to local climate change projections from coarse global model outputs. The suitability of these techniques depends on the particular application of interest and, especially, on the required spatial resolution. Whereas SD is appropriate for local (e.g., gauge) resolution, BA may be a good alternative when the gap between the predictor and predictand resolution is small. However, the different sources of uncertainty affecting SD such as reanalysis uncertainty, the choice of suitable predictors, climate model, and/or statistical approach may yield implausible projections in particular situations for which BA techniques may offer a compromise alternative, even for local resolution. In this work, we consider a case study with 41 rain gauges over Malawi and show that, despite producing similar results for a historical period, the use of different predictors may lead to large differences in the future projections obtained from SD methods. For instance, using temperature T (specific humidity Q) produces much drier (wetter) conditions than those projected by the raw global models for the target area. We demonstrate that this can be partially alleviated by substituting T+Q by relative humidity R, which simultaneously accounts for both water availability and temperature, and yields regional projections more compatible with the global one. Nevertheless, large local differences still persist, lacking a physical interpretation. In these situations, the use of simpler approaches such as empirical BA may lead to more plausible (i.e., more consistent with the global model) projections. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Bias adjustment; Climate change projections; Extrapolation; Humidity; Malawi; Statistical downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Electric power system interconnection; Rain gages; Climate change projections; Future projections; Historical periods; Physical interpretation; Sources of uncertainty; Spatial resolution; Statistical approach; Statistical downscaling; Climate change; air temperature; climate change; climate prediction; downscaling; regional climate; relative humidity; spatial resolution; tide gauge; water availability; Malawi
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146990
作者单位	Meteorology Group, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, 39005, Spain; Agricultural Engineering Department, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), Lilongwe, Malawi; Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), Blantyre, Malawi; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand; Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC - Universidad de Cantabria), Santander, 39005, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Manzanas R.,Fiwa L.,Vanya C.,et al. Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi[J],2020,162(3).
APA	Manzanas R.,Fiwa L.,Vanya C.,Kanamaru H.,&Gutiérrez J.M..(2020).Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi.Climatic Change,162(3).
MLA	Manzanas R.,et al."Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi".Climatic Change 162.3(2020).