气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of future monsoon precipitation over the central himalayas by CMIP5 models under warming scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01497
	Projection of future monsoon precipitation over the central himalayas by CMIP5 models under warming scenarios
	Kadel I.; Yamazaki T.; Iwasaki T.; Abdillah M.R.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	1
结束页码	21
卷号	75 期号:1
英文摘要	The credibility of 38 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is assessed to simulate the spatiotemporal variability of the summer monsoon season (SMS) precipitation over the central Himalayas in and around Nepal in the present climate (1971−2000). The evolution of precipitation during 3 tri-decadal periods of the 21st century (2011−2040, 2041−2070 and 2070−2099) under 2 warming scenarios: representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5, are analyzed based on the systematically selected best models and their multi-model mean. Most of the models capture the annual cycle. However, most are deficient in their simulation of spatial distribution of SMS mean climatology and interannual variability (IAV). Models consistently project a considerable increase in seasonal mean precipitation in the middle and late 21st century under both warming scenarios. However, there is inconsistency in projections of the change in IAV of seasonal mean precipitation in all future periods. The increase in the seasonal mean is contributed to mainly by intensification of moderate to heavy precipitation events and the enhanced frequency and length of active spells. Increased precipitation could be attributed to the increase in moisture flux convergence and enhanced low level circulation. Inconsistency in the spatial distribution of the future projections of SMS precipitation change by the best models indicates the uncertainty of the projections and suggests careful interpretation of projections is required in the study of regional climate change and its consequences. © The authors 2018.
英文关键词	Active and break spells; Climate change; GCM; Nepal; Precipitation extremes; Variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climatology; CMIP; global climate; moisture flux; precipitation intensity; regional climate; seasonal variation; spatial analysis; spatial distribution; spatiotemporal analysis; Himalayas; Nepal
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146981
作者单位	Atmospheric Science Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan; Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nagpokhari, Naxal, Kathmandu, Nepal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kadel I.,Yamazaki T.,Iwasaki T.,et al. Projection of future monsoon precipitation over the central himalayas by CMIP5 models under warming scenarios[J],2018,75(1).
APA	Kadel I.,Yamazaki T.,Iwasaki T.,&Abdillah M.R..(2018).Projection of future monsoon precipitation over the central himalayas by CMIP5 models under warming scenarios.Climate Research,75(1).
MLA	Kadel I.,et al."Projection of future monsoon precipitation over the central himalayas by CMIP5 models under warming scenarios".Climate Research 75.1(2018).