气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: A CMIP5 study

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DOI	10.3354/cr01528
	Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: A CMIP5 study
	Libanda B.; Ngonga C.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	59
结束页码	72
卷号	76 期号:1
英文摘要	Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 2021-2100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. The steepness of these trends generally falls between -0.22 and 0.47 on Sen's slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. © Inter-Research 2018.
英文关键词	CMIP5; Frequency; Intensity; Precipitation; Projections; Zambia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	CMIP; drought; extreme event; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; precipitation intensity; spatial analysis; strategic approach; North Western Province [Sri Lanka]; Sri Lanka; Tanzania; Zambia
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146964
作者单位	School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom; Ministry of Energy and Water Development, PO Box 53930, Lusaka, Zambia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Libanda B.,Ngonga C.. Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: A CMIP5 study[J],2018,76(1).
APA	Libanda B.,&Ngonga C..(2018).Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: A CMIP5 study.Climate Research,76(1).
MLA	Libanda B.,et al."Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: A CMIP5 study".Climate Research 76.1(2018).