气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of risk in the context of climate change; land use choices and crop production: Evidence from Zambia

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01581
	The role of risk in the context of climate change; land use choices and crop production: Evidence from Zambia
	De Pinto A.; Smith V.H.; Robertson R.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	39
结束页码	53
卷号	79 期号:1
英文摘要	Most of the studies that investigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture have concentrated on the effects of changes in mean temperature and precipitation even though the importance of volatility and risk on farmers' decision making is well documented. This study examines the empirical importance of the effects of risk associated with the impacts of climate change on farm land allocations and consequent effects on agricultural output in Zambia. We used a discrete-choice model consistent with a mean-variance utility function to model farm-level land allocations among alternative crops. Results indicate that risk-reducing decisions can reinforce crop shifts driven by climate change impacts on mean temperature and precipitation. While an analysis of the available per-capita daily nutrients reveals that farmers' crop allocation choices can mitigate the negative effects of climate change, the opportunity cost of these decisions is explored through a simulation scenario in which yield variability is reduced to zero. Reduction of yield variability leads to land allocations that result in a sizable increase in total crop production and a significant increase in available per capita daily calories. Important conclusions can be derived from this analysis. First, the risk environment matters and should not be ignored. When the economic effects of climate change are considered, decision making under uncertainty and risk should be at the forefront of the problems that need to be addressed. Second, concentrating on farm-level effects of responses to climate change is not sufficient. To understand the economy-wide consequences of climate change, the aggregate effects of individual decisions should be assessed. Third, results indicate that increased efforts in risk management and in developing policies aimed at reducing risk can lead to significant positive outcomes for the nutritional status of low-income, food- insecure populations. © The authors 2019.
英文关键词	Climate change; Farmland crop allocation; Land use change; Risk and volatility
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural land; climate change; crop plant; crop production; decision making; land use; land use change; nutritional status; precipitation (climatology); Zambia
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146919
作者单位	Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, United States; Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, PO Box 172920, Bozeman, MT 59717, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	De Pinto A.,Smith V.H.,Robertson R.D.. The role of risk in the context of climate change; land use choices and crop production: Evidence from Zambia[J],2019,79(1).
APA	De Pinto A.,Smith V.H.,&Robertson R.D..(2019).The role of risk in the context of climate change; land use choices and crop production: Evidence from Zambia.Climate Research,79(1).
MLA	De Pinto A.,et al."The role of risk in the context of climate change; land use choices and crop production: Evidence from Zambia".Climate Research 79.1(2019).