气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States

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DOI	10.3354/cr01550
	Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States
	Leasor Z.T.; Quiring S.M.; Ford T.W.; Brent McRoberts D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	181
结束页码	192
卷号	77 期号:2
英文摘要	Improved seasonal forecasting can help to mitigate the impacts of prolonged extreme heat, a prominent climate hazard in the south-central United States. Temperatures in this region exhibit significant temporal autocorrelation on monthly to seasonal timescales, and the magnitude of temperature persistence can provide useful information for seasonal climate forecasts. This study examines spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central US using high-resolution temperature data from 1900−2015. Consistent with previous studies, temperature persistence varies substantially across the region and is strongest during the summer months. Statistically significant temporal autocorrelations are primarily observed on a monthly timescale; however, at some locations, temperature persistence is also statistically significant at 3 mo timescales. This research builds upon previous findings by using the skill of monthly persistence forecasts to examine how temperature persistence varies with the magnitude of temperature anomalies. Results show that forecast skill regularly increases as the magnitude of the temperature anomalies increase. For example, anomalously warm temperatures during the spring can serve as an early warning for a warmer than normal summer. Our results suggest that persistence forecasts can aid in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of temperatures, particularly when anomalous conditions occur. © Inter-Research 2019.
英文关键词	Air temperature; Climate; High temperature events; Seasonal forecasting; Variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; high temperature; persistence; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature anomaly; weather forecasting; United States
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146907
作者单位	Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, United States; Department of Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901, United States; Department of Geography, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leasor Z.T.,Quiring S.M.,Ford T.W.,et al. Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States[J],2019,77(2).
APA	Leasor Z.T.,Quiring S.M.,Ford T.W.,&Brent McRoberts D..(2019).Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States.Climate Research,77(2).
MLA	Leasor Z.T.,et al."Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States".Climate Research 77.2(2019).