气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal assessments of future precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area considering non-stationarities in predictor−predictand relationships

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DOI	10.3354/CR01590
	Seasonal assessments of future precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area considering non-stationarities in predictor−predictand relationships
	Merkenschlager C.; Hertig E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	19
结束页码	42
卷号	80 期号:1
英文摘要	Within the context of analyzing daily heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century, a new method considering nonstationarities in the relationships of large-scale circulation predictors and regional precipitation extremes was applied. The Mediterranean area was split into up to 22 precipitation regions, and analyses were performed separately for 3 different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) and 3 different quantiles (90th, 95th and 99th). Estimations are based on a three-step censored quantile regression. Future estimations are performed by means of 3 model runs of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Overall, the Mediterranean is mainly characterized by decreasing quantile values. Especially in the regions in the southeast, declines are significant, with up to 71.7% (−1.65 mm) in the Levante region (autumn) and over 16 mm (−38.2%) on Crete (winter). Increased precipitation quantiles were only assessed for a more or less extended region in the northern parts of the Central Mediterranean (winter and spring), for the northeastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula (autumn) and for northern Spain (spring). Overall, analyses showed that non-stationarities seriously affect precipitation behavior in most parts of the Mediterranean. Results indicated that 2 different regimes (western and eastern) inducing non-stationarities are predominant in the Mediterranean area. In autumn (winter), the western (eastern) regime is limited to the Iberian Peninsula (Levante), whereas in spring, the area of influence of both regimes is of equal size. © Inter-Research 2020
英文关键词	Mediterranean; Non-stationarities; Precipitation extremes; Statistical Downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; future prospect; greenhouse gas; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; Crete [Greece]; Iberian Peninsula; Mediterranean Region; Spain
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146889
作者单位	Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Alter Postweg 118, Augsburg, 86159, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Merkenschlager C.,Hertig E.. Seasonal assessments of future precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area considering non-stationarities in predictor−predictand relationships[J],2020,80(1).
APA	Merkenschlager C.,&Hertig E..(2020).Seasonal assessments of future precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area considering non-stationarities in predictor−predictand relationships.Climate Research,80(1).
MLA	Merkenschlager C.,et al."Seasonal assessments of future precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area considering non-stationarities in predictor−predictand relationships".Climate Research 80.1(2020).