气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Joint inversion of proxy system models to reconstruct paleoenvironmental time series from heterogeneous data

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/cp-16-65-2020
	Joint inversion of proxy system models to reconstruct paleoenvironmental time series from heterogeneous data
	Bowen G.J.; Fischer-Femal B.; Reichart G.-J.; Sluijs A.; Lear C.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	65
结束页码	78
卷号	16 期号:1
英文摘要	Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstructions are fundamentally uncertain because no proxy is a direct record of a single environmental variable of interest; all proxies are indirect and sensitive to multiple forcing factors. One productive approach to reducing proxy uncertainty is the integration of information from multiple proxy systems with complementary, overlapping sensitivity. Mostly, such analyses are conducted in an ad hoc fashion, either through qualitative comparison to assess the similarity of single-proxy reconstructions or through step-wise quantitative interpretations where one proxy is used to constrain a variable relevant to the interpretation of a second proxy. Here we propose the integration of multiple proxies via the joint inversion of proxy system and paleoenvironmental time series models in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. The "Joint Proxy Inversion" (JPI) method provides a statistically robust approach to producing self-consistent interpretations of multiproxy datasets, allowing full and simultaneous assessment of all proxy and model uncertainties to obtain quantitative estimates of past environmental conditions. Other benefits of the method include the ability to use independent information on climate and environmental systems to inform the interpretation of proxy data, to fully leverage information from unevenly and differently sampled proxy records, and to obtain refined estimates of proxy model parameters that are conditioned on paleo-archive data. Application of JPI to the marine Mg=Ca and δ18O proxy systems at two distinct timescales demonstrates many of the key properties, benefits, and sensitivities of the method, and it produces new, statistically grounded reconstructions of Neogene ocean temperature and chemistry from previously published data. We suggest that JPI is a universally applicable method that can be implemented using proxy models of wide-ranging complexity to generate more robust, quantitative understanding of past climatic and environmental change. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	heterogeneity; Neogene; paleoceanography; paleoclimate; proxy climate record; qualitative analysis; reconstruction; sea surface temperature; time series analysis
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146758
作者单位	Department of Geology and Geophysics, Global Change and Sustainability Center, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, United States; NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Den Burg, Texel, Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bowen G.J.,Fischer-Femal B.,Reichart G.-J.,et al. Joint inversion of proxy system models to reconstruct paleoenvironmental time series from heterogeneous data[J],2020,16(1).
APA	Bowen G.J.,Fischer-Femal B.,Reichart G.-J.,Sluijs A.,&Lear C.H..(2020).Joint inversion of proxy system models to reconstruct paleoenvironmental time series from heterogeneous data.Climate of the Past,16(1).
MLA	Bowen G.J.,et al."Joint inversion of proxy system models to reconstruct paleoenvironmental time series from heterogeneous data".Climate of the Past 16.1(2020).