气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4179-2
	Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean
	Ribes A.; Thao S.; Vautard R.; Dubuisson B.; Somot S.; Colin J.; Planton S.; Soubeyroux J.-M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1095
结束页码	1114
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961–2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Detection and attribution; Extreme events; Mediterranean; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate change; extreme event; geostatistics; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; threshold; trend analysis; France; Mediterranean Region
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146589
作者单位	CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; LSCE, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL and Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France; Météo France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ribes A.,Thao S.,Vautard R.,et al. Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Ribes A..,Thao S..,Vautard R..,Dubuisson B..,Somot S..,...&Soubeyroux J.-M..(2019).Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Ribes A.,et al."Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).