气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4195-2
	An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions
	Paeth H.; Li J.; Pollinger F.; Müller W.A.; Pohlmann H.; Feldmann H.; Panitz H.-J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1343
结束页码	1357
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Decadal prediction; Drift correction; Dynamical downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; climatology; cooling; correction; downscaling; global climate; sea surface temperature; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146573
作者单位	Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Am Hubland, Würzburg, 97070, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Seewetteramt Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Paeth H.,Li J.,Pollinger F.,et al. An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Paeth H..,Li J..,Pollinger F..,Müller W.A..,Pohlmann H..,...&Panitz H.-J..(2019).An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Paeth H.,et al."An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).