气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4210-7
	Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices
	Seo S.B.; Kim Y.-O.; Kim Y.; Eum H.-I.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1595
结束页码	1611
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	When selecting a subset of climate change scenarios (GCM models), the priority is to ensure that the subset reflects the comprehensive range of possible model results for all variables concerned. Though many studies have attempted to improve the scenario selection, there is a lack of studies that discuss methods to ensure that the results from a subset of climate models contain the same range of uncertainty in hydrologic variables as when all models are considered. We applied the Katsavounidis–Kuo–Zhang (KKZ) algorithm to select a subset of climate change scenarios and demonstrated its ability to reduce the number of GCM models in an ensemble, while the ranges of multiple climate extremes indices were preserved. First, we analyzed the role of 27 ETCCDI climate extremes indices for scenario selection and selected the representative climate extreme indices. Before the selection of a subset, we excluded a few deficient GCM models that could not represent the observed climate regime. Subsequently, we discovered that a subset of GCM models selected by the KKZ algorithm with the representative climate extreme indices could not capture the full potential range of changes in hydrologic extremes (e.g., 3-day peak flow and 7-day low flow) in some regional case studies. However, the application of the KKZ algorithm with a different set of climate indices, which are correlated to the hydrologic extremes, enabled the overcoming of this limitation. Key climate indices, dependent on the hydrologic extremes to be projected, must therefore be determined prior to the selection of a subset of GCM models. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change scenarios; Climate extremes indices; Global circulation model; Katsavounidis–Kuo–Zhang algorithm; Scenario selection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	algorithm; atmospheric circulation; circulation modeling; climate change; climate effect; extreme event; hydrological modeling; scenario analysis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146571
作者单位	Institute of Engineering Research, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Alberta Environment and Parks (AEP), Environmental Monitoring and Science Division, Calgary, AB, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Seo S.B.,Kim Y.-O.,Kim Y.,et al. Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Seo S.B.,Kim Y.-O.,Kim Y.,&Eum H.-I..(2019).Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Seo S.B.,et al."Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).