气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4234-z
	Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models
	Krishnamurthy L.; Muñoz Á.G.; Vecchi G.A.; Msadek R.; Wittenberg A.T.; Stern B.; Gudgel R.; Zeng F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1965
结束页码	1982
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States through the transport of moisture. We make use of high-resolution coupled and uncoupled models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections and further compare with low-resolution models. The high-resolution coupled model FLOR shows improvements in the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections with rainfall and SST over the IAS compared to the low-resolution coupled model CM2.1. The CLLJ is better represented in uncoupled models (AM2.1 and AM2.5) forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), emphasizing the role of SSTs in the simulation of the CLLJ. Further, we determine the forecast skill for observed rainfall using both high- and low-resolution predictions of rainfall and SSTs for the July–August–September season. We determine the role of statistical correction of model biases, coupling and horizontal resolution on the forecast skill. Statistical correction dramatically improves area-averaged forecast skill. But the analysis of spatial distribution in skill indicates that the improvement in skill after statistical correction is region dependent. Forecast skill is sensitive to coupling in parts of the Caribbean, Central and northern South America, and it is mostly insensitive over North America. Comparison of forecast skill between high and low-resolution coupled models does not show any dramatic difference. However, uncoupled models show improvement in the area-averaged skill in the high-resolution atmospheric model compared to lower resolution model. Understanding and improving the forecast skill over the IAS has important implications for highly vulnerable nations in the region. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accuracy assessment; air-sea interaction; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric modeling; error correction; jet flow; moisture transfer; rainfall; summer; teleconnection; weather forecasting; Caribbean Islands; Central America; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical); South America; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146534
作者单位	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, AOS Princeton University/NOAA GFDL, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; CNRS/CERFACS CECI UMR, Toulouse, France; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, 10964, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krishnamurthy L.,Muñoz Á.G.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Krishnamurthy L..,Muñoz Á.G..,Vecchi G.A..,Msadek R..,Wittenberg A.T..,...&Zeng F..(2019).Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Krishnamurthy L.,et al."Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).