气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-week prediction of the Madden

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4272-6
	Multi-week prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1
	Marshall A.G.; Hendon H.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2513
结束页码	2528
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	We assess the ability of the Bureau of Meteorology’s new ACCESS-S1 dynamical forecast system to predict the MJO using retrospective forecasts for the period 1990–2012. Compared to the benchmark POAMA-2 system, ACCESS-S1 demonstrates improved skill in predicting the ensemble mean bivariate RMM index by about 4 days lead time in austral summer and 5 days in boreal summer. Probabilistic forecast scores further demonstrate improved skill in predicting MJO amplitude by at least 7 days, and MJO phase by about 9 days. However, the ensemble from ACCESS-S1 for the MJO is underdispersed, indicating further gains in forecast skill can still be achieved. Improvements in the regional depiction of MJO rainfall in ACCESS-S1 over POAMA-2 include a more realistic southward extension of austral summer rainfall over Northern Australia, and a better overall spatial distribution and eastward extension of boreal summer rainfall over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. Both models depict well the northward propagation of boreal summer rainfall over the Indian Ocean warm pool. Overall, ACCESS-S1 simulates the MJO signature in global rainfall at least as well as, if not better than, POAMA-2. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric dynamics; climate prediction; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; Madden-Julian oscillation; probability; rainfall; Australia; Indian Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146505
作者单位	Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marshall A.G.,Hendon H.H.. Multi-week prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Marshall A.G.,&Hendon H.H..(2019).Multi-week prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Marshall A.G.,et al."Multi-week prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).