气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mid-latitude source of the ENSO-spread in SINTEX-F ensemble predictions

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4280-6
	Mid-latitude source of the ENSO-spread in SINTEX-F ensemble predictions
	Ogata T.; Doi T.; Morioka Y.; Behera S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2613
结束页码	2630
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	The ensemble spread of seasonal prediction is investigated in this study to understand its role in the predictability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on the results of SINTEX-F2, a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system, the first ENSO precursor appears as a cyclonic wind anomaly over the central north Pacific in boreal winter (January). This is followed by warm SST, positive rainfall and cross-equatorial southerly wind anomalies in the northern hemisphere during spring (particularly in April). These anomalies in April are accompanied by westerly wind anomaly in the western equatorial Pacific. Finally, El Niño-like conditions with warm SST and positive rainfall anomalies become dominant in the ensemble standard deviation after boreal summer. The 500 hPa geopotential height suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability excites El Niño-like spread through air-sea interaction. The oceanic response in the form of upper heat content (in the top 150 m) appears to result from the equatorial wind forcing during boreal spring and summer. These model results suggest that air-sea interaction related to the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) is important for ENSO spread and the “spring predictability barrier”. The dependence of ENSO spread on the background ensemble-mean state is also investigated. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Ensemble spread; ENSO; Seasonal prediction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric general circulation model; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; Northern Hemisphere; wind; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146502
作者单位	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ogata T.,Doi T.,Morioka Y.,et al. Mid-latitude source of the ENSO-spread in SINTEX-F ensemble predictions[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Ogata T.,Doi T.,Morioka Y.,&Behera S..(2019).Mid-latitude source of the ENSO-spread in SINTEX-F ensemble predictions.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Ogata T.,et al."Mid-latitude source of the ENSO-spread in SINTEX-F ensemble predictions".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).