气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2
	Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models
	Marchi S.; Fichefet T.; Goosse H.; Zunz V.; Tietsche S.; Day J.J.; Hawkins E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2775
结束页码	2797
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in September 2014 to record low in February 2017. In this work, a set of six state-of-the-art global climate models is used to evaluate the potential predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at such timescales. This first multi-model study of Antarctic sea ice predictability reveals that the ice edge location can potentially be predicted up to 3 years in advance. However, the ice edge location predictability shows contrasted seasonal performances, with high predictability in winter and no predictability in summer. The reemergence of the predictability from one winter to next is provided by the ocean through its large thermal inertia. Sea surface heat anomalies are stored at depth at the end of the winter and influences the sea ice advance the following year as they resurface. The effectiveness of this mechanism across models is found to depend upon the depth of the mixed layer. One should be very cautious about these potential predictability estimates as there is evidence that the Antarctic sea ice predictability is promoted by deep Southern Ocean convection. We therefore suspect models with excessive convection to show higher sea ice potential predictability results due to an incorrect representation of the Southern Ocean. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Deep convection; Model intercomparison; Predictability; Sea ice; Southern Ocean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; deep sea; global climate; oceanic convection; prediction; sea ice; Southern Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146489
作者单位	Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marchi S.,Fichefet T.,Goosse H.,et al. Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Marchi S..,Fichefet T..,Goosse H..,Zunz V..,Tietsche S..,...&Hawkins E..(2019).Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Marchi S.,et al."Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).