气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improved seasonal predictive skill and enhanced predictability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall following ENSO events in NCEP CFSv2 hindcasts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4316-y
	Improved seasonal predictive skill and enhanced predictability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall following ENSO events in NCEP CFSv2 hindcasts
	Shin C.-S.; Huang B.; Zhu J.; Marx L.; Kinter J.L.; III
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3079
结束页码	3098
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	The dominant modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability, as well as their seasonal predictive skill and predictability, are investigated using two sets of seasonal hindcasts made with the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2): one from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast Project (CFS_RR) and the other using a Multi-ocean Analyses Ensemble initialization scheme (CFS_MAE). The 1st and 2nd empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies correspond respectively to the contemporaneous and delayed responses to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in its developing and decaying years. In general, CFSv2 is capable of skillfully predicting these two dominant ASM modes on the seasonal time scale up to 5 months in advance. Moreover, the predictive skill of the ASM rainfall in CFS_MAE is much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporaneous one. The predicted principal component of the former maintains high correlation skill and small ensemble spread about two seasons ahead while the latter is significantly degraded in both measures after one season. A maximized signal-to-noise EOF analysis further shows that the delayed ASM response to ENSO is also the most predictable pattern at long leads in CFS_RR. The improved predictive skill of the ASM rainfall following ENSO events originates from the enhanced predictability associated with the active air-sea feedback in the Indo-northwestern Pacific domain from the ENSO peak to the ENSO demise phase, which are well captured in the CFSv2 hindcasts. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Asian summer monsoon; CFSv2 hindcasts; Contemporaneous and delayed responses to ENSO; Seasonal prediction and predictability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; empirical orthogonal function analysis; hindcasting; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146478
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States; Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shin C.-S.,Huang B.,Zhu J.,et al. Improved seasonal predictive skill and enhanced predictability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall following ENSO events in NCEP CFSv2 hindcasts[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Shin C.-S.,Huang B.,Zhu J.,Marx L.,Kinter J.L.,&III.(2019).Improved seasonal predictive skill and enhanced predictability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall following ENSO events in NCEP CFSv2 hindcasts.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Shin C.-S.,et al."Improved seasonal predictive skill and enhanced predictability of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall following ENSO events in NCEP CFSv2 hindcasts".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).