气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4309-x
	Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill
	DeFlorio M.J.; Waliser D.E.; Guan B.; Ralph F.M.; Vitart F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3039
结束页码	3060
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasts of weather and climate extremes are being increasingly demanded by water resource managers, operational forecasters, and other users in the applications community. This study uses hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) S2S forecast system to evaluate global subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are intense lower tropospheric plumes of moisture transport that often project strongly onto extreme precipitation. An aggregate quantity is introduced to assess AR subseasonal prediction skill, defined as the number of AR days occurring over a week-long period (AR1wk occurrence). The observed pattern of seasonal mean AR1wk occurrence strongly resembles the general pattern of daily AR frequency. The ECMWF S2S forecast system generally shows positive (negative) biases relative to reanalysis in the mid-latitude regions in summer (winter) of up to 0.5–1.0 AR days in AR1wk occurrence in regions of highest AR activity. ECMWF AR1wk occurrence forecast skill outperforms a reference forecast based on monthly climatology of AR1wk occurrence at week-3 (14–20 days) lead over a number of subtropical to midlatitude regions, with slightly better skill evident in wintertime. The magnitude and subseasonal forecast skill of AR1wk occurrence are shown to vary interannually, and both quantities are modulated during certain phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific–North America teleconnection pattern, and Madden–Julian Oscillation. © 2018, This is a U.S. government work and its text is not subject to copyright protection in the United States; however, its text may be subject to foreign copyright protection.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Arctic Oscillation; atmospheric plume; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; hindcasting; Madden-Julian oscillation; moisture transfer; precipitation (climatology); teleconnection; troposphere; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146477
作者单位	Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive M/S 300-330, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	DeFlorio M.J.,Waliser D.E.,Guan B.,et al. Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	DeFlorio M.J.,Waliser D.E.,Guan B.,Ralph F.M.,&Vitart F..(2019).Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	DeFlorio M.J.,et al."Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).