气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamical evidence for causality between Northern Hemisphere annular mode and winter surface air temperature over Northeast Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4317-x
	Dynamical evidence for causality between Northern Hemisphere annular mode and winter surface air temperature over Northeast Asia
	Zhang N.; Wang G.; Tsonis A.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3175
结束页码	3182
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Past results [Thompson and Wallace in Geophys Res Lett 25(9):1297–1300, 1998; Science 293(5527):85–89, 2001; Wallace and Thompson in J Clim 15(14):1987–1991, 2002a] indicate that over the Eurasian continent, North America, and East Asia, wintertime surface temperatures tend to be warmer (colder) on high-index (low-index) Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM). However, a linear correlation is neither necessary nor sufficient to establish causality between them. Here, we apply a recently developed method, convergent cross mapping (CCM), to examine the causal connections between NAM and wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia. Our analysis indicates that both NAM and SAT exhibit nonlinear dynamical structure and that NAM information is encoded in the SAT data but not the other way around. This indicates a causality between them in the direction NAM → SAT. This result opens the possibility to use the NAM index as the external driving factor to forecast winter SAT over Northeast Asia. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Causality; Convergent cross mapping; Northern Hemisphere annular mode; Surface air temperature over Northeast Asia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; annual variation; forecasting method; Northern Hemisphere; regional climate; statistical analysis; winter; Northeast Asia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146471
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Mathematical Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, United States; Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang N.,Wang G.,Tsonis A.A.. Dynamical evidence for causality between Northern Hemisphere annular mode and winter surface air temperature over Northeast Asia[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Zhang N.,Wang G.,&Tsonis A.A..(2019).Dynamical evidence for causality between Northern Hemisphere annular mode and winter surface air temperature over Northeast Asia.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Zhang N.,et al."Dynamical evidence for causality between Northern Hemisphere annular mode and winter surface air temperature over Northeast Asia".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).