气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4330-0
	Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates
	Saraiva S.; Markus Meier H.E.; Andersson H.; Höglund A.; Dieterich C.; Gröger M.; Hordoir R.; Eilola K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3369
结束页码	3387
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical circulation model we investigate the combined impact of changing nutrient loads from land and changing climate during the 21st century as projected from a global climate model regionalized to the Baltic Sea region. Novel compared to previous studies are an extraordinary spin-up based upon historical reconstructions of atmospheric, nutrient load and runoff forcing, revised nutrient load scenarios and a comparison of nutrient load scenario simulations with and without changing climate. We found in almost all scenario simulations, with differing nutrient inputs, reduced eutrophication and improved ecological state compared to the reference period 1976–2005. This result is a long-lasting consequence of ongoing nutrient load reductions since the 1980s. Only in case of combined high-end nutrient load and climate scenarios, eutrophication is reinforced. Differences compared to earlier studies are explained by the experimental setup including nutrient loads during the historical period and by the projected nutrient loads. We found that the impact of warming climate may amplify the effects of eutrophication and primary production. However, effects of changing climate, within the range of considered greenhouse gas emission scenarios, are smaller than effects of considered nutrient load changes, in particular under low nutrient conditions. Hence, nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan will lead to improved environmental conditions independently of future climate change. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Baltic Sea; Future climate scenarios; Future socio-economic scenarios
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; ecosystem response; eutrophication; nutrient dynamics; primary production; runoff; twenty first century; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146451
作者单位	Instituto Superior Técnico, Environment and Energy Section, University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, Lisbon, 1049-001, Portugal; Department of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden; Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemnde, Rostock, 18119, Germany; Institute of Marine Research, Nordnesgaten 50, Bergen, 5005, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Saraiva S.,Markus Meier H.E.,Andersson H.,et al. Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Saraiva S..,Markus Meier H.E..,Andersson H..,Höglund A..,Dieterich C..,...&Eilola K..(2019).Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Saraiva S.,et al."Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).