气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x
	Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts
	Bloemendaal N.; Muis S.; Haarsma R.J.; Verlaan M.; Irazoqui Apecechea M.; de Moel H.; Ward P.J.; Aerts J.C.J.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5031
结束页码	5044
卷号	52 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R 2 -values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225° is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0°, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1 m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension > 1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ECMWF integrated forecasting system; Global hydrodynamic model; GTSM; Resolution effects
语种	英语
scopus关键词	coastal zone; hurricane event; hydrodynamics; numerical model; storm surge; tide gauge; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146374
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Netherlands; Deltares, Delft, 2600 MH, Netherlands; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, 3731 GA, Netherlands; TU Delft, Delft, 2600 AA, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bloemendaal N.,Muis S.,Haarsma R.J.,et al. Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts[J],2019,52(2020-07-08).
APA	Bloemendaal N..,Muis S..,Haarsma R.J..,Verlaan M..,Irazoqui Apecechea M..,...&Aerts J.C.J.H..(2019).Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-07-08).
MLA	Bloemendaal N.,et al."Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-07-08(2019).