气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Week 3–4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4484-9
	Week 3–4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems
	Wang L.; Robertson A.W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5861
结束页码	5875
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The subseasonal predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is examined using two global ensemble prediction systems (ECMWF VarEPS and NCEP CFSv2), with an emphasis on the week 3–4 lead (i.e. 15–28 days ahead) fortnight-average anomaly correlation skill over the United States, in each calendar season. Although the ECMWF system exhibits slightly higher skill for both temperature and precipitation in general, these two systems show similar geographical variations in the week 3–4 skill in all seasons and encouraging skill in certain regions. The regions of skill are then interpreted in terms of large-scale teleconnection patterns. Over the southwest US in summer, the North American monsoon system leads to higher skill in precipitation and surface temperature, while high skill over northern California in spring is found to be associated with the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During winter, in particular, week 3–4 predictability is found to be higher during extreme phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific-North American (PNA)/Tropical-Northern Hemisphere mode, and AO/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both forecast systems are found to predict these teleconnection indices quite skillfully, with the anomaly correlation of the wintertime NAO and PNA exceeding 0.5 for both models. In both models, the subseasonal contribution to the PNA skill is found to be larger than for the NAO, where the seasonal component is large. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; geographical distribution; North Atlantic Oscillation; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; surface temperature; teleconnection; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); California; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146329
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, 2005 Songhu Road, Yangpu, Shanghai, 200438, China; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang L.,Robertson A.W.. Week 3–4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Wang L.,&Robertson A.W..(2019).Week 3–4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Wang L.,et al."Week 3–4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).