气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4516-5
	A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability
	Ham S.; Lim A.-Y.; Kang S.; Jeong H.; Jeong Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6391
结束页码	6410
卷号	52 期号:11
英文摘要	The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) in-house model (Seamless Coupled Prediction System: SCoPS) has been newly developed for operational seasonal forecasting. SCoPS has generated ensemble retrospective forecasts for the period 1982–2013 and real-time forecasts for the period 2014–current. In this study, the seasonal prediction skill of the SCoPS hindcast ensemble was validated compared to those of the previous operation model (APEC Climate Center Community Climate System Model version 3: APCC CCSM3). This study validated the spatial and temporal prediction skills of hindcast climatology, large-scale features, and the seasonal climate variability from both systems. A special focus was the fidelity of the systems to reproduce and forecast phenomena that are closely related to the East Asian monsoon system. Overall, both CCSM3 and SCoPS exhibit realistic representations of the basic climate, although systematic biases are found for surface temperature and precipitation. The averaged temporal anomaly correlation coefficient for sea surface temperature, 2-m temperature, and precipitation from SCoPS is higher than those from CCSM3. Notably, SCoPS well captures the northward migrated rainband related to the East Asian summer monsoon. The SCoPS simulation also shows useful skill in predicting the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Consequently, SCoPS is more skillful than CCSM3 in predicting seasonal climate variability, including the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation. Further, it is clear that the seasonal climate forecast with SCoPS will be useful for simulating the East Asian monsoon system. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	APCC in-house model; East Asian monsoon; SCoPS; Seasonal prediction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Arctic Oscillation; climate modeling; climate prediction; climate variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; hindcasting; monsoon; real time; seasonal variation; weather forecasting; Far East
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146268
作者单位	Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan, 48058, South Korea; Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Theoretical Division, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics (T-3), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ham S.,Lim A.-Y.,Kang S.,et al. A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability[J],2019,52(11).
APA	Ham S.,Lim A.-Y.,Kang S.,Jeong H.,&Jeong Y..(2019).A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability.Climate Dynamics,52(11).
MLA	Ham S.,et al."A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability".Climate Dynamics 52.11(2019).