气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4520-9
	Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva
	Feng X.; Huang B.; Straus D.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6427
结束页码	6440
卷号	52 期号:11
英文摘要	The seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track anomalies in boreal winter (December–January–February, DJF) is examined using seasonal ensemble reforecasts for 1982–2009 from the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System at two different atmospheric resolutions in Project Minerva. It is found that the predictable signals of storm track variations are associated with the two leading EOF modes of ensemble-averaged DJF variances of the high-pass filtered daily meridional winds at 250-hPa level derived from each of the hindcast ensemble members. These two EOF modes are highly correlated both temporarily and spatially between two sets of reforecasts. The first mode (EOF1) mainly shows a latitudinal shift of the storm tracks over the central-eastern North Pacific and the North America continent. The second mode (EOF2) is primarily the pulsing signal exerting on the mean storm track background of the North Pacific. The model predictive skill is verified against observations. The first mode has higher prediction skills and larger skillful regions than the second one. In particular, the first predictable mode is generated by the ENSO-induced wave train, starting from tropical central Pacific and propagating to North America. The skillful region lies in the North Pacific to the west of California, corresponding to the southern lobe of EOF1. The second predictable mode is generated by the North Pacific Mode, which evokes a distinctive wave train, emanating from the tropical western Pacific and propagating northeastward. Its skillful region of the storm track prediction is confined to a small area of Canada western coastlines. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; Northern Hemisphere; organization; seasonal variation; storm track; winter; California; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean (West); United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146265
作者单位	Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Feng X.,Huang B.,Straus D.M.. Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva[J],2019,52(11).
APA	Feng X.,Huang B.,&Straus D.M..(2019).Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva.Climate Dynamics,52(11).
MLA	Feng X.,et al."Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva".Climate Dynamics 52.11(2019).