气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6
	An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean
	Cruz-García R.; Guemas V.; Chevallier M.; Massonnet F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	427
结束页码	440
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Arctic sea ice plays a central role in the Earth’s climate. Changes in the sea ice on seasonal-to-interannual timescales impact ecosystems, populations and a growing number of stakeholders. A prerequisite for achieving better sea ice predictions is a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of sea ice predictability. Previous studies have shown that sea ice predictability depends on the predictand (area, extent, volume), region, and the initial and target dates. Here we investigate seasonal-to-interannual sea ice predictability in so-called “perfect-model” 3-year-long experiments run with six global climate models initialized in early July. Consistent with previous studies, robust mechanisms for reemergence are highlighted, i.e. increases in the autocorrelation of sea ice properties after an initial loss. Similar winter sea ice extent reemergence is found for HadGEM1.2, GFDL-CM3 and E6F, while a long sea ice volume persistence is confirmed for all models. The comparable predictability characteristics shown by some of the peripheral regions of the Atlantic side illustrate that robust similarities can be found even if models have distinct sea ice states. The analysis of the regional sea ice predictability in EC-Earth2.3 demonstrates that Arctic basins can be classified according to three distinct regimes. The central Arctic drives most of the pan-Arctic sea ice volume persistence. In peripheral seas, we find predictability for the sea ice area in winter but low predictability throughout the rest of the year, due to the particularly unpredictable sea ice edge location. The Labrador Sea stands out among the considered regions, with sea ice predictability extending up to 1.5 years if the oceanic conditions upstream are known. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Arctic; Predictability; Regional; Sea ice
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate modeling; prediction; sea ice; Arctic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean; Labrador Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146190
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center (Centro Nacional de Supercomputación), Nexus II-Planta 1 C/ Jordi Girona, 29, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques/Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cruz-García R.,Guemas V.,Chevallier M.,et al. An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Cruz-García R.,Guemas V.,Chevallier M.,&Massonnet F..(2019).An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Cruz-García R.,et al."An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).