气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of tropical cyclone Phailin (2013) in the Bay of Bengal to climate perturbations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04761-w
	Response of tropical cyclone Phailin (2013) in the Bay of Bengal to climate perturbations
	Mittal R.; Tewari M.; Radhakrishnan C.; Ray P.; Singh T.; Nickerson A.K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2013
结束页码	2030
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are the major source of loss of properties and lives in the adjacent coastal regions during post-monsoon (October–November) season. This study explores the impact of large-scale environmental change on tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin (2013) in the Bay of Bengal. An ensemble simulation with a regional atmospheric model using different physics and initial conditions is able to capture the observed track of Phailin. The cyclone intensity, however, is underestimated due to the coarse resolution (10 km) of the model. To explore Phailin’s response to a warming climate, a global climate model change signal is added to the cyclone environment using the pseudo-global warming approach, and the ensemble is run again. It is found that changes in the track of Phailin would be small, except around the time of landfall, when Phailin shifts southward in its track. The cyclone becomes more intense and larger, but the translation speed remains nearly unchanged. An analysis of physical processes indicates a deeper TC core due to enhanced latent heating. The vertical distribution of temperature and wind indicates that the eye of Phailin would have a greater vertical extent in the future climate. The expanded size is found to be due to an increase in environmental humidity and temperature in the lower-troposphere leading to an increase in environmental convective available potential energy. The translation speed remains nearly unchanged due to insignificant changes in the steering flow. The result suggests that Phailin, under a warmer climate, may have higher damage potential (~ 22%) compared to the present at the time of landfall. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Bay of Bengal; Climate change; Phailin; Pseudo-global warming; Tropical cyclone intensity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; climate change; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; global warming; storm track; tropical cyclone event; Bay of Bengal; Indian Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146083
作者单位	IBM Research, New Delhi, India; IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY, United States; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Meteorology, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, United States; National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, India; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mittal R.,Tewari M.,Radhakrishnan C.,et al. Response of tropical cyclone Phailin (2013) in the Bay of Bengal to climate perturbations[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Mittal R.,Tewari M.,Radhakrishnan C.,Ray P.,Singh T.,&Nickerson A.K..(2019).Response of tropical cyclone Phailin (2013) in the Bay of Bengal to climate perturbations.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Mittal R.,et al."Response of tropical cyclone Phailin (2013) in the Bay of Bengal to climate perturbations".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).