气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04651-1
	Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects
	Wang C.; Wang B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2697
结束页码	2714
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans were suggested to explain inter-annual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Here we show that the influences of these “trans-basin” SST anomalies in the three oceans can be collectively understood via two leading modes of variability of WNP subtropical high (WNPSH). The first mode, which is forced by SST anomalies in the eastern-central Pacific and tropical Atlantic, can shift TC formation locations southeastward/northwestward, but has insignificant influence on the total TC genesis number, albeit affects the TC tracks, total number of tropical storm days, and power dissipation index (PDI). The second mode, which is a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode associated with a dipole SST anomaly in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, has a significant control on the total TC genesis number. A set of physics-based empirical models is built to predict the two WNPSH modes and TC activity (genesis number, tropical storm days and PDI) in the peak TC season (July–September) with preceding season trans-basin SST predictors. The predictions capture very well the inter-annual variabilities of the WNPSH and reasonably well the variability of WNP TC activity. These results thus establish a unified framework to understand and forecast the inter-annual variability in TC activity over the WNP. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Inter-annual variability; Seasonal prediction; Subtropical high; Tropical cyclone; Western North Pacific
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; cyclogenesis; prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; subtropical convergence; tropical cyclone; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146058
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters and Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang C.,Wang B.. Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Wang C.,&Wang B..(2019).Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Wang C.,et al."Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).