气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04728-x
	Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season
	Creese A.; Washington R.; Jones R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3583
结束页码	3602
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the rainforest boundaries close to the threshold of viability. There is considerable uncertainty in projections of future rainfall change from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the high-emissions experiment (RCP8.5). Whilst there is a general trend towards wetting in most months, its magnitude varies considerably. In the December to February dry season, the projected change in seasonal rainfall varies from 2 to 160 mm across models. This study uses a regionally-focused process-based assessment to understand inter-model differences in rainfall projections, as a first step to assessing their plausibility. Models which produce the most wetting by the end of the century feature enhanced convection over the Congo Basin region, enhanced subsidence in the African subtropics, and decreased uplift over the Maritime Continent. In contrast, models with a small wetting response feature reduced convection over the Congo Basin. This indicates that wetting over the Congo Basin is related to a weakening of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation, reminiscent of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole state. Models with the highest magnitude wetting also feature greater low-to-mid-level moisture flux from the north and the east compared to models with less wetting. These results indicate that the future degree of wetting over the Congo Basin will be linked to changes in convection over the Maritime Continent. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate model evaluation; CMIP5; Congo Basin; Rainfall
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; dry season; rainfall; regional climate; wetting; Congo Basin; Indian Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146014
作者单位	School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Creese A.,Washington R.,Jones R.. Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Creese A.,Washington R.,&Jones R..(2019).Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Creese A.,et al."Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).