气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sub-cloud moist entropy curvature as a predictor for changes in the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04715-2
	Sub-cloud moist entropy curvature as a predictor for changes in the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation
	Harrop B.E.; Lu J.; Leung L.R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3463
结束页码	3479
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Convective Quasi-Equilibrium (CQE) may be a useful framework for understanding the precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) response to CO2-induced warming. To explore this proposition, a suite of aquaplanet simulations with a slab ocean from the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) is analyzed. A linear relationship between P − E and the curvature of sub-cloud moist entropy, a criterion for the onset of a tropical direct overturning circulation under CQE conditions, is shown to exist across many of the TRACMIP simulations. Furthermore, this linear relationship is a skillful predictor of changes in P − E in response to CO2-induced warming. The curvature metric also shows improvement in predicting P − E changes compared to the simpler method of relating P − E directly to the sub-cloud moist entropy field or a simple ‘wet-get-wetter’ type null hypothesis, especially on seasonal and shorter timescales. Using fixed relative humidity in the curvature metric and sub-cloud moist entropy degrades their ability to predict P − E changes, implying that both temperature and relative humidity changes in the boundary layer are important for characterizing future precipitation changes. To understand why the curvature metric is a skillful predictor of hydrological changes, a moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis is performed for a subset of the TRACMIP models. MSE divergence by transient eddies, which is well parameterized as a downgradient diffusive process, has a similar spatiotemporal structure to the curvature term, suggesting transient eddies are an important component to understanding the linear relationship between the curvature term and P − E. © 2019, Battelle Memorial Institute.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	cloud microphysics; computer simulation; numerical model; overturn; precipitation (climatology); prediction; relative humidity; seasonal variation; tropical meteorology; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146012
作者单位	Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harrop B.E.,Lu J.,Leung L.R.. Sub-cloud moist entropy curvature as a predictor for changes in the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Harrop B.E.,Lu J.,&Leung L.R..(2019).Sub-cloud moist entropy curvature as a predictor for changes in the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Harrop B.E.,et al."Sub-cloud moist entropy curvature as a predictor for changes in the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).