气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of CMIP5 ability to reproduce twentieth century regional trends in surface air temperature and precipitation over CONUS

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04875-1
	Evaluation of CMIP5 ability to reproduce twentieth century regional trends in surface air temperature and precipitation over CONUS
	Lee J.; Waliser D.; Lee H.; Loikith P.; Kunkel K.E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5459
结束页码	5480
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The ability of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce twentieth-century climate trends over the seven CONUS regions of the National Climate Assessment is evaluated. This evaluation is carried out for summer and winter for three time periods, 1895–1939, 1940–1979, and 1980–2005. The evaluation includes all 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique models and their multi-model ensemble (MME), as well as a gridded in situ dataset of surface air temperature and precipitation. Analysis is performed on both individual members and the MME, and considers reproducing the correct sign of the trends by the members as well as reproducing the trend values. While the MME exhibits some trend bias in most cases, it reproduces historical temperature trends with reasonable fidelity for summer for all time periods and all regions, including at the CONUS scale, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895 to 1939 and Southeast during 1980–2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical temperature trends across all time periods over all regions, including at the CONUS scale, except the Southeast from 1895 to 1939 and the Midwest during 1940–1979. Model skill was highest across all of the seven regions during JJA and DJF for the 1980–2005 period. The quantitatively best result is seen during DJF in the Southwest region with at least 74% of the ensemble members correctly reproducing the observed trend across all of the time periods. No clear trends in MME precipitation were identified at these scales due to high model precipitation variability. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CMIP5; Model evaluation; Multi-model ensemble; Surface air temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; precipitation assessment; trend analysis; twentieth century; Great Plains
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145899
作者单位	Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - North Carolina, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee J.,Waliser D.,Lee H.,et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 ability to reproduce twentieth century regional trends in surface air temperature and precipitation over CONUS[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Lee J.,Waliser D.,Lee H.,Loikith P.,&Kunkel K.E..(2019).Evaluation of CMIP5 ability to reproduce twentieth century regional trends in surface air temperature and precipitation over CONUS.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Lee J.,et al."Evaluation of CMIP5 ability to reproduce twentieth century regional trends in surface air temperature and precipitation over CONUS".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).