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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04895-x
	Covariations between the Indian Ocean dipole and ENSO: a modeling study
	Wang H.; Kumar A.; Murtugudde R.; Narapusetty B.; Seip K.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5743
结束页码	5761
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The coevolution of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using both observational data and coupled global climate model simulations. The covariability of IOD and ENSO is analyzed by applying the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) method to the surface and subsurface ocean temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The first EEOF mode shows the evolution of IOD that lags ENSO, whereas the second mode exhibits the transition from a dipole mode to a basin-wide mode in the tropical Indian Ocean that leads ENSO. The lead-lag relationships between IOD and ENSO are consistent with two-way interactions between them. A comparison between two 500-year model simulations with and without ENSO shows that ENSO can enhance the variability of IOD at interannual time scale. The influence of ENSO on the IOD intensity is larger for the eastern pole than for the western pole, and further, is stronger in the negative IOD phase than in the positive phase. The influence of IOD on ENSO is demonstrated by the improvement of ENSO prediction using sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean as an ENSO precursor. The improvement of the ENSO forecast skill is found at both a short lead time (0 month) and long leads (10–15 months). The SST in the western pole has more predictive value than in the eastern pole. The eastward propagation of surface and subsurface temperature signals from the western Indian Ocean that precedes the development of heat content anomaly in the tropical western Pacific is the key for extending the lead time for ENSO prediction. Our results are consistent with previously reported findings but highlight the spatial–temporal evolution of the ENSO-IOD system. It is also illustrated that IOD would have been more helpful in predicting the 1997/98 El Niño than the 2015/16 El Niño. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate modeling; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Indian Ocean dipole
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; empirical orthogonal function analysis; Indian Ocean Dipole; sea surface temperature; temporal evolution; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (Tropical); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145896
作者单位	NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, United States; ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Faculty of Technology, Art, and Design, OsloMet–Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang H.,Kumar A.,Murtugudde R.,et al. Covariations between the Indian Ocean dipole and ENSO: a modeling study[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Wang H.,Kumar A.,Murtugudde R.,Narapusetty B.,&Seip K.L..(2019).Covariations between the Indian Ocean dipole and ENSO: a modeling study.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Wang H.,et al."Covariations between the Indian Ocean dipole and ENSO: a modeling study".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).