气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the skill of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a decadal prediction experiment

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04896-w
	Assessing the skill of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a decadal prediction experiment
	Boer G.J.; Sospedra-Alfonso R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5763
结束页码	5775
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	A modified approach to the assessment of the prediction skill of “modes of variability” is proposed and applied to a decadal prediction experiment. In particular, the skill of predicting the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated. The approach depends on separately calculating the EOFs of the observations, the ensemble of forecasts, and an ensemble of simulations made with the same model and external forcing. The skill of predicting and simulating the spatial structure of the modes is captured by comparing forecast and simulated EOFs with the observation-based EOFs. This is in contrast to the case where forecasts and simulations are expanded in observation-based EOFs, or other structure functions, which gives no direct information about the model-based EOF structures themselves. The skill of predicting the temporal evolution of EOFs is separately captured by comparing the associated expansion functions. Finally, the contribution of the modes to the overall prediction skill is obtained by weighting the spatial and temporal skills with the variances involved. The behaviour of the first mode, identified as the PDO, is given particular attention. Perhaps not unexpectedly, the EOF structure of the forecasts more closely resembles that of the simulations than that of the observations, but both reproduce the structure of the observed PDO quite well with spatial correlations near 0.8. The temporal correlation of the expansion functions is near 0.7 for year 1 forecasts and declines toward zero subsequently. The overall correlation skill for the North Pacific is dominated by the PDO with a small contribution from the second mode and none from the third mode. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	CanCM4 decadal hindcasts; Decadal prediction; Modal skill; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PDO
语种	英语
scopus关键词	computer simulation; decadal variation; empirical orthogonal function analysis; ensemble forecasting; experimental study; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; prediction; spatiotemporal analysis; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145895
作者单位	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Boer G.J.,Sospedra-Alfonso R.. Assessing the skill of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a decadal prediction experiment[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Boer G.J.,&Sospedra-Alfonso R..(2019).Assessing the skill of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a decadal prediction experiment.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Boer G.J.,et al."Assessing the skill of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a decadal prediction experiment".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).