气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An update on the estimate of predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric variability using North American Multi-Model Ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-016-3217-1
	An update on the estimate of predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric variability using North American Multi-Model Ensemble
	Jha B.; Kumar A.; Hu Z.-Z.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7397
结束页码	7409
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	In this analysis, an update in the estimate of predictable component in the wintertime seasonal variability of atmosphere documented by Kumar et al. (J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007) is provided. The updated estimate of seasonal predictability of 200-hPa height (Z200) was based on North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast system. The seasonal prediction systems participating in the NMME have gone through an evolution over a 10-year period compared to models that were used in the analysis by Kumar et al. (J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007). The general features in the estimates of predictable signal conform with previous results—estimates of predictability remain high in the tropical latitudes and decrease towards the extratropical latitudes; and predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal forecast systems is still primarily associated with ENSO variability. As the horizontal and vertical resolution of the models used in the current analysis is generally higher, it did not have a marked influence on the estimate of the relative amplitude of predictable component. Although the analysis indicates an increase in the estimate of predictable component, however, it maybe related to the increase in ENSO related SST variance over 1982–2000 relative to 1950–2000 (over which the analysis of Kumar et al. in J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007 was). The focus of the analysis is wintertime variability in Z200 and its comparison with results in Kumar et al. (J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007), some analyses for summertime variability in Z200, and further, for sea surface temperature, 2-m temperature and precipitation are also presented. © 2016, Springer.
英文关键词	200 hPa height; Ensemble mean; NMME; Predictability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; height; precipitation assessment; resolution; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145847
作者单位	Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Innovim LLC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jha B.,Kumar A.,Hu Z.-Z.. An update on the estimate of predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric variability using North American Multi-Model Ensemble[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Jha B.,Kumar A.,&Hu Z.-Z..(2019).An update on the estimate of predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric variability using North American Multi-Model Ensemble.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Jha B.,et al."An update on the estimate of predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric variability using North American Multi-Model Ensemble".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).