气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3608-y
	On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability
	Jacox M.G.; Alexander M.A.; Stock C.A.; Hervieux G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7519
结束页码	7533
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	The California Current System (CCS) is a biologically productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System that experiences considerable environmental variability on seasonal and interannual timescales. Given that this variability drives changes in ecologically and economically important living marine resources, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. Here, we assess the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts in the CCS using output from Global Climate Forecast Systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and describe mechanisms that underlie SST predictability. A simple persistence forecast provides considerable skill for lead times up to ~4 months, while skill above persistence is mostly confined to forecasts of late winter/spring and derives primarily from predictable evolution of ENSO-related variability. Specifically, anomalously weak (strong) equatorward winds are skillfully forecast during El Niño (La Niña) events, and drive negative (positive) upwelling anomalies and consequently warm (cold) temperature anomalies. This mechanism prevails during moderate to strong ENSO events, while years of ENSO-neutral conditions are not associated with significant forecast skill in the wind or significant skill above persistence in SST. We find also a strong latitudinal gradient in predictability within the CCS; SST forecast skill is highest off the Washington/Oregon coast and lowest off southern California, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability. These findings have direct implications for regional downscaling of seasonal forecasts and for short-term management of living marine resources. © 2017, The Author(s).
英文关键词	California current system; ENSO; NMME; Predictability; Seasonal forecasting; Upwelling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; downscaling; eastern boundary current; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; temperature anomaly; upwelling; California; Oregon; United States; Washington [United States]
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145840
作者单位	Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA/NMFS, 99 Pacific Street, Suite 255A, Monterey, CA 93940, United States; Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jacox M.G.,Alexander M.A.,Stock C.A.,et al. On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Jacox M.G.,Alexander M.A.,Stock C.A.,&Hervieux G..(2019).On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Jacox M.G.,et al."On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).