气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3652-7
	More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble
	Hervieux G.; Alexander M.A.; Stock C.A.; Jacox M.G.; Pegion K.; Becker E.; Castruccio F.; Tommasi D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7153
结束页码	7168
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	The skill of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions for large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in coastal regions of the United States and Canada is assessed using simulations from the climate models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). The forecasts based on the full ensemble are generally more skillful than predictions from even the best single model. The improvement in skill is particularly noteworthy for probability forecasts that categorize SST anomalies into upper (warm) and lower (cold) terciles. The ensemble provides a better estimate of the full range of forecast values than any individual model, thereby correcting for the systematic over-confidence (under-dispersion) of predictions from an individual model. Probability forecasts, including tercile predictions from the NMME, are used frequently in seasonal forecasts for atmospheric variables and may have many uses in marine resource management. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
英文关键词	Climate models; Coastal ecosystems; Multimodel ensemble forecast; Seasonal prediction; SST anomaly
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; coastal zone; ensemble forecasting; marine ecosystem; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; temperature anomaly; Canada; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145839
作者单位	Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, 325 Broadway R/PSD1, Boulder, CO 80305-3328, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540-6649, United States; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, United States; NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, 99 Pacific St., Ste. 255A, Monterey, CA 93940, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS6C5, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States; NOAA/Climate Prediction Center and INNOVIM LLC, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, United States; NCAR/Climate and Global Dynamics, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Progr...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hervieux G.,Alexander M.A.,Stock C.A.,et al. More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Hervieux G..,Alexander M.A..,Stock C.A..,Jacox M.G..,Pegion K..,...&Tommasi D..(2019).More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Hervieux G.,et al."More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).