气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3670-5
	Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
	Manganello J.V.; Cash B.A.; Hodges K.I.; Kinter J.L.; III
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7169
结束页码	7184
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
英文关键词	North American Multi-Model Ensemble; North Atlantic; Seasonal forecasts; Tropical cyclone frequency
语种	英语
scopus关键词	algorithm; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; frequency analysis; seasonal variation; storm track; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Caribbean Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145838
作者单位	Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), George Mason University (GMU), 113 Research Hall, Mail Stop 2B3, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; George Mason University (GMU), Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Manganello J.V.,Cash B.A.,Hodges K.I.,et al. Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Manganello J.V.,Cash B.A.,Hodges K.I.,Kinter J.L.,&III.(2019).Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Manganello J.V.,et al."Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).